A Sober Look at America’s Future

I feel fortunate to have been born in the mid-1950s and to have lived during most of the period 1950-2000, which I believe will prove years from now to be the sweet spot of civilization. I believe the world since World War 2 was a better place because of American exceptionalism and fear that when another country takes her place, the good life as we know it on this planet will come to an end. Many believe China will succeed American hegemony; I don’t believe that will happen and would be unfortunate if it does. Despite all of America’s challenges right now, I don’t see any other region ready to take the reins of planetary leadership away from us; Russia’s threat to dethrone us ended when the Cold War ended in 1989; Europe and Japan appear by all measures to be dead in the water, struggling to survive. I also believe that if and when America falls it will be our own doing, from the growing weakness from within and lack of resolve from our and future generations, rather than due to another country’s strength to take it away from us.

I am glad I am no longer a teenager, because today’s world makes no sense to me and bears little resemblance to the one I grew up in nearly 70 years ago. My generation, the baby boom generation, and the generations x and y (aka the Millennials) that followed have done a poor job instilling our children and theirs with the values, ambition and self-reliance that made this country great. We have effectively abolished the nurturing that only comes from a nuclear family, we’ve offered few good role models for our young to emulate, we’ve let their formal education languish, and we’re telling them that sexual identity is a matter of choice not biology. We haven’t given them the confidence and backbone to be self-reliant, take responsibility for their actions or own up to the consequences of their actions when they screw up. Instead, we’ve given them the internet and social media and hope they’ll somehow grow up on their own.

Making matters worse, many of our political and business leaders are insincere and often show questionable judgment, like ignoring and lying to us about some of the most pressing challenges facing our country, while dithering their time on projects that sound promising but are unlikely to offer few benefits to us, especially in the short term. We’re hearing a lot of hype about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence (AI) as if those new technologies are somehow going to save our financial system, a system that has been overextended for more than a decade. They say things like bitcoin is better than gold knowing only too well that gold has been money for thousands of years and has many unique desirable qualities that make it indispensable in some industries and for personal use, whereas bitcoin was invented early this century and is actually the product of some arbitrary math problem that serves no societal benefit and can be easily substituted by thousands of other cryptocurrencies. They hype the hopeful positives (and play down the potential negative consequences) of artificial intelligence, knowing full well that those benefits are far into the future (more on AI later).

At the same time, half of the adults in our country are telling our kids that letting everybody and anybody into our country through an open border is a good thing, that the police are evil and should be de-funded by the public tax payer, and that criminals are the real victims of our society, not the folks they attack. Any wonder the kids today are confused? Now we’re telling them that with the help of AI we’re going to train computers to do things more efficiently than they can, leaving them with the real prospect of being chronically unemployed for the rest of their lives.

Seeing how bad my and subsequent generations have done during the past several decades, I shudder to think what life will be like in 2050 and beyond, when the responsibility for running things on the planet is turned over to the next sheltered, neglected, misguided, poorly trained, and spiritually bereft generation.

Historians agree that the Roman Empire gradually crumbled over a period of about 700 years, for many reasons such a foreign invasions, mass migrations, economic and financial challenges, loss of traditional social values among its citizens, political instability, and government corruption to name a few. Some of those may sound familiar as they are evident today in America.

America’s politics have run amok.

The new millennium brought with it cracks in our Republic that have since become more apparent. The 2001 presidential election divided the country politically and with time and has turned friends, families and neighbors against each other (in many cases violently). You might remember George W Bush became president by a slim margin that made many democrats believe the election had been stolen from their candidate, Al Gore. To retaliate, democrats, with the overwhelming support of a dominantly liberal main stream media, managed to persuade us that the most inexperienced and unknown candidate in history should be elected twice to the presidency. Subsequently, election shenanigans escalated throwing serious doubt about the legitimacy of recent elections among many on both sides of the aisle. As a result, today the country seems more divided along party lines than at any time in recent history, making effective federal governance difficult if not impossible at times.

Many will argue (persuasively I might add) that America sowed the seeds of its current decline back in the early 1970s when the dollar’s gold backing was abandoned, contributing to the high inflation of that decade and the liberal bank lending policies and profligate borrowing practices of American families. This enabled families to imprudently spend more than their incomes would allow and to become more in debt.

This century began with three major setbacks.

I believe the first event highlighting America’s vulnerability came on 9/11 and showed all of us that none of us were truly safe from the murderous attacks of global terrorists. For all of modern history America had been fortunate to fight wars on foreign soil and to keep attacks offshore as well; this attack brought our enemies to the forefront of our consciousness, right up and personal. Do you feel less safe since 9/11?

The second tangible indication of America’s fallibility came with the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) when our global financial system nearly failed causing many to lose their homes and their life savings. The economic “good times” and wild spending of the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s finally culminated in a financial disaster that I believe has not fully played out. I believe that when (not if) it does, many people will experience a lot of hurt for many years to come. The system has been barely held together and not much improved since 2008 based on the widespread (but ultimately likely false) belief that global central bankers and governments are capable of keeping this system operating indefinitely. There has been so much manipulation and tampering with market mechanisms and financial metrics it will be impossible to know when the system will fail again. However, there is still far too much global debt (3x more than global equity) to be sanguine about the future; and with gold rising to an all time high of more than $3,000 per ounce recently, historically a bad sign for the economy, we can only wonder about what’s really happening behind the scenes right now. The economic dislocation and hardship caused by the GFC caused many to protest against the unfairness of capitalism and gave rise to the socialist, even communist, movements that have been visible for more than a decade in America. The GFC undoubtedly contributed to the angst among the younger generation about their futures and have left them with the idea that the American dream is dead. Do you feel more financially insecure since the GFC?

Approximately a decade later, in 2019, the third and probably the most ubiquitous event demonstrating our vulnerability came with the global outbreak of the Covid 19 virus, which brought widespread severe illness and death to millions of Americans and virtually crippled the global economy for several months. That plague and hiatus of normal activity has undoubtedly left scars on the psyches of many who endured those hardships, especially the younger generation whose development was stymied during their formative years toward adulthood. Once again, the combination of societal disruption and economic dislocation and the economic concessions that were provided by government to soften their effects may have encouraged the younger generation to believe that government and the world at large owed them a living and always will. The enormous public debt that they are saddled with (i.e., $100,000 per person in America) may give some credence to that claim.

The political fallout from the 2001 election, the fear for personal safety created by 9/11, the growing financial insecurity and hardship caused by the 2008 financial crisis, and finally the health scare brought about by Covid 19, has caused Americans to feel more vulnerable now than at any time since the bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941. Those events may have fostered the apparent apathetic attitude by many of the younger generation, making them victims of a seemingly futile system that offers little hope for their futures.

Technology has historically led our progress.

It’s only natural for us to seek new technologies to improve our lives, as they have done for thousands of years, taking us from living in caves 10,000 years ago to the current comfortable standard of living we enjoy today. New technologies have always disrupted the status quo living conditions and sometimes caused dislocations that were difficult to adjust to but ultimately gave way to better living standards enjoyed by everyone. This time is no different, but I fear some of the new technologies now being introduced run the risk of marginalizing us as human beings and could be self-destructive to our species over the long term.

However, technology is a double-edged sword.

We can all agree that the widespread use of the internet late in the last century has been a boon to civilization and has fundamentally changed for the better how we access information and communicate with each other, but like all new technologies, there is an adjustment process that can be difficult and even painful that can have negative consequences. Many believe the introduction of artificial intelligence will be a giant leap forward but the experts seem split as to whether it will be a net gain for society at large. Personally, and certainly in the short run, AI could be detrimental to our welfare as human beings, making us dumber and lazier than the internet has already made us, and thereby could even threaten our survival. Specifically, among other uses, artificial intelligence is attempting to replace the human element in many of our daily activities, thereby diminishing not only the economic value of human labor but the ambition, drive and feeling of self worth among human beings.

Proponents of such technology believe paying folks not to work is the answer without giving any consideration to the detrimental social effects of rendering an increasing share of humanity disenfranchised from their own existence. It’s as if society at large has implicitly decided that it’s more productive to train computers to emulate smart, well trained employees than it is to actually educate and train young people to do their jobs. Making matters worse, a major portion of all that free time now available to the unemployed is being wasted by mindless activities offered by the internet.

I agree that machines and computers should be used to substitute for labor wherever they can improve the efficiency of tasks, but today it would appear that labor is being substituted prematurely with computers that really don’t improve the quality of services provided by many companies, and it is customers that bear the brunt of the mistakes, malfunctions and inconveniences with little or no recourse to engage a human who can assist in solving problems. Have you ever been stuck on a phone trying to resolve an issue with a company only to spend several minutes trying to navigate a phone system trying to get a human being on the line to resolve your issue? In the meantime, in the medium term, trained labor is being displaced and faced with terminal unemployment. In the longer term, companies should acknowledge the need to train labor to meet the needs of a workplace that is increasingly relying on computers to deliver services.

There have been the emergence of certain companies and technologies that have enhanced human productivity; for me personally, the advent of Microsoft’s word and spread sheet programs late last century made my working life much more productive, as did search engines like Yahoo and Google. Cell phones also made communication easier and more efficient although it would appear that the emergence of smart phones early this century may have made some workers more productive but have rendered many others less productive because of all the distractions smart phones offer. Today they have become a permanent hand-held accessory used to avoid social interaction in public and for day dreaming throughout the day.

I’m not sure Amazon is a net gain or loss for society; yes, shopping has never been easier, cheaper but is it necessarily good that younger generations don’t seem to feel the need to leave home to shop? The internet allows them to work from home, which can be beneficial but in the extreme prevents workers from valuable training and socialization that can only come from working alongside their colleagues in offices. The same is true of online education which greatly and necessarily expanded during Covid lock downs; speaking for myself, my education and social skills were greatly enhanced by sitting in classrooms surrounded by my peers, or getting into schoolyard squabbles afterward. Even entertainment, like movies and TV, is available to individuals consuming it on their personal internet devices. Although Covid is squarely in the rear view mirror, it seems that large segments of society still prefer activities in solitude over getting out into the world and interacting with friends and the general public.

Is social media a net gain for our civilization? Do juggernaut companies like Meta, one of the most valuable on the planet, really add any real economic substance to our economy? It makes money from advertising, a process whereby your personal data is made available to companies that want to sell you products. Facebook enables billions of man hours by nearly half the world’s population to be spent trawling among their friends and family websites, time that would be better spent actually physically engaging with those people. Even though half the planet feels the need to participate in Facebook, it seems to me to be a huge waste of time and one that has proven detrimental to the emotional development of the younger generation.

Technology that stifles personal development and marginalizes the human race should be reconsidered.

It seems that the smarter technology becomes, the dumber and lazier people have become. Before electronic calculators, my dad urged me to develop a facility to do arithmetic in my head instead of using a slide rule (a very popular device used in the 1950s and 1960s) and mom encouraged us to refrain from watching too much TV but rather to spend our days reading or going out to play with our friends.

Today children aren’t learning penmanship and language itself is being subverted by the widespread use of sign language, emoticons and other visuals that don’t require any truly verbal communication to conduct activity; those non verbal methods are an obvious attempt to engage the growing number of non-English speakers in our country, but the loss of verbal skills will not serve us well in the long term.

Even adults have proven a willingness to forgo thinking by relying on electronic devices to keep their schedules and help them navigate their own neighborhoods. GPS is a great tool when traveling in an unfamiliar area, but should we use it locally so much so that we don’t really know where we’re going or where we’ve been and have no idea where important landmarks are around our homes? Even more surprising, I am hearing that many adolescents today don’t feel the need to get driver’s licenses and seem to be content using Uber/Lyft for all their travel needs; soon, if we believe the hype, those vehicles will be robotic and won’t even use human drivers! Robots would be the logical next step since Uber/Lyft drivers can already do their jobs without speaking the local language or even knowing where they’re going (thanks to GPS), so the human aspect of the service has already been eliminated.

Our growing reliance on machines to do our thinking for us cannot possibly be good for the advancement of our species, and I shudder to think about how we will scramble when some external event (like a blast of solar radiation) or man-made event (such as an internet network malfunction, like the one that froze global airline activity for days starting on July 17, 2024) renders the internet, smart phones and computers worthless (even if temporarily) for accomplishing any daily activities.

When I was a kid, my peers aspired to be doctors, lawyers, astronauts, scientists, athletes and so forth. Kids today want to become You Tube millionaires or do any other occupation that uses a smart phone application that will allow them to sit on their butts while working. Perhaps some day that transition from people to computers will be perfected, but right now we’re left with computers running amok and people standing around unable to make them work properly.

The American economy transitioned from manufacturing to services more than 50 years ago and for me services necessarily require the involvement of trained human beings. It’s bad enough that we don’t make anything anymore, now we are embarking on a course where we won’t be trained to do anything anymore either. Unfortunately, it would appear that many company business models incorporate an approach to customers designed to misrepresent or even deceive them into buying or overpaying for things they don’t need. Worse yet, others sell things that either malfunction or never worked to begin with. And now the only recourse we have to rectify those situations is to do battle with some website that may or may not provide us with satisfaction.

Moreover, all the boasting companies make these days about their ability to cut costs due to technological enhancements makes me wonder how much cost cutting comes at the expense of lousy customer/client service. My favorite example is the airline industry. Fifty years ago taking a flight involved consulting a travel agent or airline booking agent, booking a flight, receiving tickets, checking in at an airport, and taking off. Now you are routinely referred to a website where you must navigate a (sometimes confusing and often malfunctioning) website obstacle course of options, make the effort to either print or download tickets to your personal phone, check yourself in at the airport, all without the aid of a human being. It seems to me that they’re saving money by shifting the burden of acquiring their service from THEIR employees to CUSTOMERS. Think about how many businesses you use in your daily life that make YOU do all the work that was formerly done by trained personnel. How many times do you buy products that are defective in some way, and do you remember how much of a hassle it was to get somebody on the phone to remedy the situation? Is that progress? Is it good for the economy?

Beyond the economic fallout of many new technologies, the reality is that the effect on the younger population cohorts, especially born after these technologies were introduced, has been to render them incapable doing anything without the aid of their smart phones. Even their social interactions are smart phone driven, and have led to feelings of isolation that they believe only “social media” can remedy.

In summation, we are transitioning to a society that has minimal interest in training its youth, shrinking career opportunities, increasing laziness, and providing the youth in America with little desire to get out of bed in the morning.

Leisure activities are also exhibiting the negative consequences of recent new technologies.

Look at the impact of technology on our art, culture and entertainment. There are more venues and ways to access music, movies and TV than ever before, but have you noticed that the music still most popular and heard everywhere in the media today was created in the last century? Fifty years ago there were a handful of TV stations and always something worth watching; today there are hundreds of cable TV channels but nothing anybody wants to watch.

Moreover, when was the last time you saw a decent new movie? Have you noticed that the majority of movies and TV shows these days favor fantasy themes and animation techniques made possible by new technologies that encourage the public at large to escape into a video game-like alternative reality, with no story line or dialogue that might enrich their understanding of their own lives or the reality of living on this planet? Besides these cartoon fantasies, many “new” movies are remakes of great movies made during the last century, which are the only ones that have decent stories and dialogue. I suppose it makes sense that current movies are mostly visual expressions so as to be marketable globally where most potential customers don’t speak English.

Also, when was the last time you visited a museum and saw anything that was original and worth seeing? It appears that our growing obsession with new content DELIVERY technologies is taking the place of creating new, original and interesting CONTENT.

Medical knowledge has advanced but medical care has declined.

Despite the wondrous advancements in medical equipment and prescription medicine, our species continues to become more obese and out of shape, exacerbated by our mental and physical idleness. Would it surprise you to learn that most young men today are ineligible to join the armed forces because of obesity, mental illness or criminal records? The medical profession acts as though they think medication is always the answer, and rarely advises us that the best single thing we can do to be healthier and ward off the major diseases of our current society (most notably cancer, heart disease, and diabetes) would be to lose weight naturally and to exercise regularly. The global human lifespan in recent years has started to decline, probably for the first time in human history, and is a clear indication of our failure to get and stay healthy. We’ve managed to wean kids off cigarettes and to a lesser extent alcohol, but haven’t done a very good job of keeping them off drugs, marijuana, opioids and the like.

Access to medical care is becoming more difficult and taking longer. Years ago patients could make appointments to see their physicians within days and GP's were willing to handle all but the most specialized problems of patients. Today, it may take weeks to get an appointment with your GP who merely serves as a gate keeper and is unwilling to diagnose or advise about any condition except the most trivial effecting patients; instead they send you to specialists which could take weeks to see. Recognizing that shortcoming, tele-health options are emerging to meet that need for immediacy by providing access to medical experts via the internet. Time will tell whether that technology will compensate for poor access via traditional in-person appointments.

The real problem is that most physicians these days seem to limit their roles to whatever abnormalities your blood work reveals and by prescribing medications to treat those abnormalities, offering no more insight than what laymen can find themselves on the internet. How is it that a surgeon can reach into your chest to give you a heart transplant, but a GP can’t be bothered physically examining you by listening to your heart and lungs and looking into your eyes, ears and throat? Makes you wonder why you bother consulting physicians?

The food we consume has exacerbated our health challenges.

Despite the advancements in our knowledge of nutrition, the population at large is consuming a poor diet of food loaded with preservatives. Junk food has been part of the American diet for decades, but it seems to have overshadowed good, wholesome cuisine in all but the most exclusive and expensive restaurants. Supermarkets have aisles exclusively devoted to chips, snacks and soda, and the packages have steadily become gargantuan. When I was a kid family sized soft drink was a 32 ounce coca cola bottle; today, customers walk around the streets with 22 ounce re-fillable cups of soda.

In an effort to offer customers tasty new recipes families and restaurants have felt the need to “improve” on old recipes by dumping all kinds of spices on them, numbing your taste buds in the process, or, for example, loading up pizza with every conceivable topping, including stuffing the crusts with cheese and hot dogs. A slice of pizza isn’t supposed to weigh a quarter of a pound or be a dumping ground for every conceivable fruit, vegetable or meat you have in your refrigerator. Today’s eateries offer contrived over-seasoned recipes for the sake of originality, use poor, ersatz or preservative-laden ingredients, execute poorly (serve food cold) and serve obesity-promoting portions, all so they can charge ridiculous prices. One thing is certain, if you dine out all the time, you’re going to get fat! Restaurants and their patrons have also fallen prey to bad internet habits, with families of patrons sitting there each buried in their smart phones. Restaurants now make customers download QR codes on their phones just to see menus, a bad habit understandably started during Covid, when folks were freaking out over the potential transmission of germs from physical menus. But in its aftermath, when I go to a restaurant, I have an expectation that it will advise me of its menu without requiring me to download anything on an internet device. Is that too much to ask?

Conclusions.

Internet technology is a scientific wonder, but the current attempt to substitute it for personal human interactions is ill-advised and is ineffective in most cases. Labor saving technology makes good economic sense but at the extreme where we seem to be headed, is leading to a general public that is isolated, alienated and losing touch with reality. In the meantime, we’re getting fatter, flabbier, unhealthier, emotionally softer, isolated, antisocial, dumber, lazier, duller and less creative. Are those the traits of a civilization that is progressing?

What is the hope for the future?

I believe that our tremendous progress during the last century was at least in part attributable to the fact that the greatest generation (parents of the baby boomers) suffered many hardships including two world wars, a flu epidemic and the great depression during the first half of that period. I believe that struggle gave them a mental toughness and physical agility to cope with and even rise above those hardships and usher in the great period of prosperity we’ve enjoyed during the second half of the twentieth century. Perhaps when our global financial system ultimately fails (and I believe it must before progress is made), that experience will give that future generation a similar toughness and ability to spawn another period of prosperity; it won’t be easy, quick or without pain for those living through it. Years ago the greatest generation grew up in poverty and became prosperous in adulthood despite many hardships and adversity. Unfortunately, current generations have flipped that trajectory and began life with tremendous wealth and advantages that continue to wither over time.