The Obama Speculative Bubble

Barack Obama’s Presidency represents the latest in a series of speculative bubbles in recent memory to challenge our way of life, like the Tech Bubble that popped at the turn of the millennium and the recent Housing Bubble, which has been belching air for the past couple of years. The “Obama Bubble” has been inflated by the worst economic and stock market downturn since the Great Depression, virtually one-sided media coverage in his favor during the Presidential primary and general election, and more money than has ever been spent by a Presidential candidate in our history.

Speculative bubbles occur when the public becomes so excited and enamored with some commodity that it abandons traditional and common sense approaches to analyzing its value, claiming that somehow a new relationship among variables has occurred and old analytic methods no longer apply. Somehow “it’s different this time.” During the Tech Bubble, tech stock prices exceeded levels normally dictated by company revenue and profitability. During our current Housing Bubble, home prices increased well beyond family incomes’ ability to finance and buy homes. Obama’s “stock” is now trading well above what a fundamental analysis of his candidacy would indicate. Obama lacks executive experience, possesses a limited professional track record and even some key members of his own party stated publicly during his candidacy that he lacked the experience necessary to be President.

Mainstream-media political analysts following presidential campaigns have historically given more consideration to candidates’ past deeds and personal associations than to what they say. Everyone knows that talk is cheap especially from politicians who will say almost anything to get elected. Yet many analysts were willing to take the Democratic candidate at his word, despite the fact that few of Obama’s words could be substantiated by past deeds. Media pundits were so captivated by Obama’s rhetoric and oratory performances that they readily gave him the benefit of every doubt on his positions and failed to critically review the viability and practicality of his policy proposals.

More curious was the complete lack of regard by analysts that an Obama administration would have extraordinary influence and power to push a one-sided liberal agenda, due to meaningful Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate. The current Stimulus Bill is a preview of how our national political system is likely to work at least for the next couple of years.

At one of the most critical times in our history, America elected one of the least prepared Presidential candidates in history, and circumstances gave him more power and influence than any President has held in recent memory. Barely one month into his Presidency, the euphoria of his election triumph is giving way to some serious cold hard reality and almost daily you can feel the air escaping the bubble. If the Obama Presidency were a stock, now would be a good time to sell!