Stock Market Future: Will the Cyclical Bull Slay the Secular Bear?

Even with a robust rally since March, the stock market has been net flat for more than a decade, in fact since the tech boom of the mid 1990s. The flat market performance is understandable because the run-up after 9/11 was more the result of financial engineering than it was due to fundamental economic growth. Artificially low interest rates, aggressive lending practices, exotic financial products and an overdose of false optimism “primed the pump” and propelled the market higher during those years. Those conditions evaporated in 2007 along with the balance sheets of some of the world’s most venerable business organizations and took the market’s heady performance with it.

The cyclical bull market refers to short term, intermittent rallies within a longer term, secular bear market trend. It is difficult to know when the bear will turn bullish, or what will ultimately cause the turn in the market and the global economy. However, against the strong headwinds of global recession and the urgent need to revamp and reduce the debt structure of our global economy, the catalyst for turning the market bullish will need to be far-reaching and transformational in nature.

That catalyst will not be the result of intentional action by government or the private sector, although government has so far been successful in delaying the seemingly inevitable collapse of our global economy and financial system. Various stimulus plans, the relentless growth of the money supply by the world’s central banks and the worldwide bailout of key financial institutions have probably kept us from complete financial disaster for the past couple of years. All government can do now is to implement policies and programs that encourage the private economy to invest capital, take risks and expand operations. The objective should be to boost investor and consumer confidence in order to keep the economy and stock market afloat until the relentless hand of progress propels us forward.

The impetus for propelling the market to new highs will likely come from some major technological advancement, in the same way that personal computers and the internet caused the market to boom some 15 years ago. In the early 1990s after more than a decade of solid performance, many predicted the stock market was doomed to a severe downturn. However, by the mid 1990s until the decade’s end, the market exploded like never before in its entire history. Many will give credit to the Clinton administration’s policies and programs, but the tech boom was obviously the driving force behind our prosperity during that period. This market will need that type of economic juggernaut to clear away the cobwebs and dispel its current funk.

Some new “game changing” technology will need to come along that will improve our lives. Perhaps it will be a new source of renewable clean energy, a cure for a major disease, a new technology to control weather, a commercially viable method of desalinating sea water, a discovery from space with the potential for widespread commercial application, or, who knows, it might result from a visit from outer space itself!

Our potential to advance our way of life is as strong as it has ever been, even though we face severe global economic conditions, limited natural resources, and a climate of global political unwillingness to manage our planet responsibly. It is the best reason I can think of to stay invested in this market.