Florida's Mass Transit Problem is not Mickey Mouse

As a resident of South Florida witness to some of the worst driving in the nation, I am always interested in discussions about bringing public mass transit to Florida, but the proposed Tampa-Orlando high-speed rail seems to be extravagant and irrelevant to some of the real public transportation issues facing Florida at the moment. The Tampa-Orlando high-speed rail link is estimated to cost $3.5 billion and upon completion will likely operate with ongoing subsidies. You can bet the Orlando-Miami link will cost a multiple of that amount and that both links will end up costing a lot more and take a lot longer to build than anyone is projecting today. It always does.

The real question is why are those rail links needed? Are they needed to take national and international visitors coming through Tampa and Miami back and forth to see Mickey? The State of Florida should be addressing the growing mass transit needs of South Florida, a major economic focal point of the State, and should be addressing the already critical needs of a growing, aging senior population.

Mass transit requires high density living and employment patterns to work effectively and economically. The good news is that South Florida, defined as the conurbation of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, is about as dense as you will find in Florida. Thirty-percent of Florida’s population, or more than 5.5 million persons, live in those three counties, which amount to about ten percent of Florida’s land area, and equates to a density of more than 1,000 persons per square mile.

South Florida’s senior population (65+ years old) is nearly one million today, and if national forecasts hold true here, it may grow 40% within the next five years. Additionally, today’s 65-year-old has a life expectancy of 84 years. During winter months, more than a million seasonal visitors and tourists add to the region’s senior population. An urgent need clearly exists to provide residents and visitors with a real alternative to driving to meet their daily local travel requirements.

The bad news is that it is unclear whether South Florida’s senior population density of less than 200 persons per square mile can support a viable mass transit system, especially in relatively low dense Palm Beach County where seniors are particularly concentrated and most likely to favor for retirement in the future.

The State of Florida should fast track a plan to solve this serious transportation problem and should consider all options in developing solutions. In addition, emerging transportation and land development plans must be consistent so that future development densities support whatever mass transit solution is ultimately adopted. Solving this important problem will be essential to maintaining the favored status of South Florida as a retirement venue and as one of Florida’s most vibrant economies.